Blowout Job Growth Globally

"The debate over the existence of a global recession may be missing an important inflection point in the global economic cycle: a trough in global manufacturing. While the global service sector has seen a boom post-pandemic, manufacturing activity has been slowing for over a year now and slipping into recession, based on the PMI survey of manufacturing business leaders, global exports of manufactured goods and revenue for manufacturing firms. But now, some signs have emerged that growth is returning as inventories are drawn down. Key signals to watch come from the pick-up in activity in leading industrial-driven economies like Germany and China. The China PMI and the German IFO surveys signal that we may be passing through the trough of the global manufacturing cycle. We can see this in the forward-looking expectations and components such as the ratio of new-orders-to-inventories ratios which are starting to turn up. The job market remains hot.