Recession and stagflation are real risks right now, and the interest rate rises are definitely warranted, says Kevin Rich. He says historically gold (/GC) trades down ahead of rate rises, but once rate rises kick in, gold holds strong. The Fed is talking a tough game, and that's what is called for, he adds. He is watching for more concrete trends in the VIX and U.S dollar (/DX) strength and treasury yields. He says investors will be worried crude oil (/CL) supplies will tighten if the EU bans Russian oil.